Builder
Confidence At Two-Year High
Continuing
low mortgage rates and improving consumer sentiment are driving
demand for
new homes and putting
builders in good spirits for the holiday season,
according to the National Association of Home Builders’ Housing
Market Index for December, released December 16,
2002. The HMI, a monthly gauge of builder sentiment,
rose one point from November’s revised reading
to 65, its highest level since November 2000, when
it also reached 65.
“
We are definitely ending 2002 on a positive note,” said
Gary Garczynski, NAHB president and a builder/developer
from Woodbridge, VA. “Builders could hardly
be more pleased with the sound fundamentals of the
market for new single-family homes, including an
incredibly favorable financing climate, solid house-price
gains and, most recently, reviving measures of overall
consumer sentiment.”
The HMI is derived from a monthly survey of builders
that NAHB has been conducting for nearly 20 years.
Home builders are asked to rate current sales of
single-family homes and sales expectations for the
next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” They
are also asked to rate traffic of prospective buyers
as either “high to very high,” “average” or “low
to very low.” Scores for responses to each
component are used to calculate a seasonally adjusted
index, where any number higher than 50 indicates
that more builders view sales conditions as good
than poor.
For December 2002, the HMI’s component index
gauging current sales of new single-family homes
rose one point to 72, its strongest reading since
February 2000, when it reached an exceptionally
high 77. The component gauging expectations for the
next
six months declined a point to 69, while the index
gauging traffic of prospective buyers was unchanged
at 48.
“
New home sales for 2002 are turning out to be even
higher than expected, despite the sluggish economic
recovery and the threat of war with Iraq,” said
NAHB Chief Economist David Seiders. “NAHB is
now forecasting a record 969,000 new-home sales for
the year as a whole, up 6.7 percent from 2001.”
Courtesy
of EIFS Alliance